If you have any questions about Transition Towns, Climate Change or Peak Oil, then this is a good place to start. However, these are complex issues, so we can only cover the basics. If you can't find what you are looking for, or want to read up on particular issues in more details, then please try our Related Links section.
Climate change (or Global Warming) is caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other polluting gases in our atmosphere. The gases trap heat within the atmpshpere by forming a blanket around the Earth which prevents heat from escaping, just like the glass of a greenhouse. These 'greenhouse gases' stay in the atmosphere for many years. As they build up, so the planet's temperature rises.
The Earth's climate varies naturally as a result of interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, changes in the Earth's orbit, fluctuations in energy received from the sun and volcanic eruptions. However, over the last 200 years, human activity has also begun to have a significant impact.
While a lot of 'greenhouse gases' are emitted naturally, the Earth's ecosystem is balanced to compensate for such emissions. The main human influence on global climate is as a result of emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. Currently, about 6.5 billion tonnes of CO2 is emitted globally each year, mostly through burning coal, oil and gas for energy. This injection of additional 'greenhouse gases' into the atmosphere over a relatively concentrated period of time has thrown the system out of balance, and has begun to significantly alter the global climate.
The scientific opinion is that we have a ceiling of around 440 parts per million (ppm) of atmospheric carbon before there is a 'tipping point', beyond which there is no way back. The rate at which we are emitting now, around 2ppm a year and rising, we could expect that that tipping point will reach us in a matter of a few years.
Climate change is the greatest environmental challenge facing the world today. Rising global temperatures are bringing changes in weather patterns, rising sea levels and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
We are already seeing the effects in 2007. The Arctic Ice Sheet, which is so vital in helping to regulate our climate by reflecting solar radiation, has shrunk to its smallest size since records began - around 1 million square km less than previous lows in 2005 and 2006. This will result in worldwide sea level rises, putting the future of low lying countries such as the Maldives in jeopardy in the short term and flooding many of the world's major cities in the longer term.
Peak Oil is not the end of oil but rather the end of cheap oil. The rate at which we can pump oil out of the ground is reaching its maximum, after which it will go into decline. We are reaching the point where half of the world's oil supplies have been extracted, but it is going to be much harder to extract the second half and it is going to be of a much lower quality.
The rate of discovery of new oil has tailed off rapidly in the last 30 years or so, with the bulk of our oil coming from oil fields discovered in the 1960s or earlier. The US reached its peak in 1970 and many experts are predicting that we are currently at or very near the world peak. It is a similar story with natural gas, although the peak is a few years further down the line.
Our whole economy is geared around the availability of abundant supplies of cheap oil. Oil is used in an amazing range of products that we have come to rely on in our everyday livers. The following list identifies just some of these:
If Climate Change is the greatest environmental challenge facing the world, then Peak Oil is surely our greatest economic challenge. Much of the ecnomic growth of the 20th century has been predicated on the availability of cheap and readily available oil and other fossil fuels.
As oil reserves start to decline, a point will come where demand is greater than supply. This will send the price of oil sharply upwards as nations compete for the limited amount that is available. Under such conditions, the prospects for continued economic growth under current models will be bleak, and countries and communities that are unprepared will struggle to meet even their basic needs let alone maintain their existing quality of life.
By reducing our energy use, and our reliance fossil fuels to meet our everyday needs, and by following a policy of relocalisation, the impact of Peak Oil will be less keenly felt, and we will have a greater chance of having a sucessful and prosperous society in the future.
Technology will undoubtedly play a significant role in helping to cut our carbon emissions, with advances in renewable power sources helping to wean us off fossil fuels and improvements in operating efficiency enhancing their commercial viability. However, technological advances cannot solve the problem alone. They must be accompanied by behavioural changes to avoid negating the benefits.
To illustrate the problem, we only need to look at recent trends in travel. Although the average new car emissions in the UK have fallen by over 12% in the 10 years to 2007, there are an extra 4 million cars on the roads and we are choosing to travel further than ever before. As a result, overall vehicle related carbon emissions have fallen by less than 1%. Our choice to travel more, and to travel by car instead of more sustainble means of travel, is reducing the benefits of the technological improvments. If we are to reduce our emissions by the required amount, then we are going to have to make conscious decisions to do so.
The short answer is not enough. In the last 10 years, New Labour has brought some progress, particularly in the prominence of climate change as an international political issue. However, the UK Government's policy on issues such as airport expansion has been completeley at odds to its policies on climate change and it has failed to deliver targets on issues such as transport and renewable energy time and again.
The current draft Climate Change Bill is the first of its kind and commands cross-party support. It proposes a 60% cut in carbon emissions by 2050. However, the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research estimates that if we are to have a 50:50 chance of limiting global warming to 2 degrees celsius (a vital tipping point beyond which climate change becomes ever more difficult to halt), we would have to cut global emissions by 80% by 2050.
Part of the problem is that central government cannot drive through change unaided. There has not been sufficient engagement of key partners and the general public. The result it that people 'switch off' when the Government tries to push its agenda on green issues. Although there can be no doubt that the Government needs to pursue a radical green agenda over the next two decades, it is also clear that unless this agenda is carried through not only with the support, but the active participation of the British people, it is bound to fail.
The great thing about Transition Towns is that they tap into the skills and ideas already present within our local communities to create something special and unique. The concept becomes embedded within the communities that conceive them, and are therefore more successful than initiatives that are imposed upon them by Governmet or other external parties.
The term 'Transition Culture' originated with Louise Rooney who formulated the term 'Transition Design' to best describe the work that she and Catherine Dunne did in developing the Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan. This has subsequently evolved to embrace a slightly different aspect of transitions, that of how one really roots it in a culture and creates a 'culture of transition'. So, collectively we see our various works as moving beyond 'environmental', 'sustainable', or 'eco' this or that. It is about transition to where we want to get to, how we get there and what it will look like.
An Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP) is a local plan for dealing with Peak Oil. It goes well beyond issues of energy supply, to look at across-the-board creative adaptations in the realms of health, education, economy, transport, food and much more. An EDAP is a way to think ahead, to plan in an integrated, multi-disciplinary way, to provide direction to local government, decision makers, groups and individuals with an interest in making the place they live into a vibrant and viable community in a post-carbon era.
We welcome anyone who wishes to join us in developing our Energy Descent Action Plan. You don't need any special skills or expertise, just enthusiam and an enquiring mind.
Alternatively, if you just want to find out more about the Transition Towns concept and the issues that we are trying to address, then have a look at our Related Links page, drop us an e-mail via the Contact Us page, or come along to one of our awareness raising events. See you there!
"New opinions often appear first as jokes and fancies, then as blasphemies and treason, then as questions open to discussion, and finally as established truths." George Bernard Shaw
(Last updated: 07 February 2008)